IHSG Rebounds in Monday's First Session on BPS Data, Rupiah Still Pressured Around Rp18,100

Indonesia's stock market opened Monday, November 2, 2026, with optimism. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) strengthened 0.95 percent, or 48.15 points, to 5,105.20 in the first trading session. The gains were mainly driven by a series of domestic economic data releases from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) signaling national economic resilience.

## BPS Data: Inflation Eases, Surplus Continues

BPS data showed October inflation at 0.22 percent, easing from 0.30 percent in September. Year-on-year, inflation stood at 3.23 percent, while calendar-year inflation was recorded at 2.40 percent. The controlled inflation figure gives breathing room to household purchasing power as well as monetary policy expectations.

Other good news came from the trade balance: Indonesia posted a US$3.23 billion trade surplus in September. A sustained surplus is an important buffer for external stability amid global turmoil. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index (PMI) rose to 54.0 from 52.4 — signaling strengthening factory activity expansion.

First-session trading activity was fairly lively: transaction volume reached 20.89 billion shares worth Rp6.96 trillion — indicating real buying interest, not just a thin rally without transactions.

This series of BPS data matters because it arrived in sequence and reinforced one another: easing inflation protects purchasing power, the US$3.23 billion September trade surplus provides an external buffer, and the manufacturing PMI at 54.0 shows factory activity expanding — a level above 50 signals expansion. The combination of the three gives a fundamental reason for the IHSG's first-session gains, not just fleeting sentiment.

## Rupiah Still Under Pressure

Unlike the IHSG, the rupiah remains under pressure. In the first session, the rupiah moved in the Rp18,100 to Rp18,200 range per US dollar. Bloomberg data recorded the spot rate at Rp18,155 per US dollar at 9:25 AM Western Indonesian Time (WIB), while Bank Indonesia's reference rate showed a selling rate of Rp18,228.69 and a buying rate of Rp18,047.31.

A number of analysts estimate the pressure on the rupiah has not fully subsided — but note that these projections are estimates, not facts. Analyst Lukman Leong of Doo Financial Futures is among those highlighting this dynamic, while Bank Mandiri expects the rupiah to move in the Rp18,080–Rp18,180 range. That range is an analyst projection and can change with market developments.

## Global Context: The Fed Holds Rates

On the external side, the United States central bank (the Fed) decided to hold its benchmark interest rate in the 3.75–4.00 percent range. Notably, the decision was not unanimous: two Fed officials, Cook and Hammack, wanted a 25-basis-point hike. The divergence of views within the Fed signals that the direction of US monetary policy ahead remains full of uncertainty — a factor that also pressures developing-country currencies including the rupiah.

## What to Watch

All figures in this report are first-session trading data; the second session may show different movements. Investors need to watch whether the IHSG's gains continue into the close, and how the rupiah responds to global developments — especially any new signals from the Fed and US dollar movements. Solid BPS data provides a foundation, but the foreign exchange market remains driven by turbulent global sentiment — and this afternoon's second trading session will be the real test of the morning rally's resilience.